EXPECTATIONS SUCK Chapter 1, featuring "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

Welcome to the first entry in my Expectations Suck section of my blog.  Today I will be talking about the upcoming first film in Peter Jackson's The Hobbit trilogy.

Well, we know this already: expectations can really suck.  On the bright side, when a film does meet (or even exceed) expectations, it's a glorious feeling.  Unfortunately, some times films you're anticipating the most end up falling woefully short of expectations (*cough* *cough* Dark Knight Rises *cough* *cough*), and that feeling you get when you're disappointed by something you've been anticipating for a long time is just...awful.  You go through denial, you feel that empty hole in the pit of your stomach, you're driven to drink, you wander through the night aimlessly, you kill a hooker, you shove a VHS tape through your gut, you put your head in the- wait, sorry I was watching Videodrome last night.  Where was I?  Oh yes, expectations.  They can SUCK.  A LOT.  So to help make the possible disappointment of a much anticipated film less painful (I didn't say painless), I've done some soul-searching and compiled a breakdown of what my realistic expectations should be for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.  Keep in mind, this is not me saying how I will exactly feel about the final product (I can't see the future, and anything has the potential to surprise me), but after getting my anticipation crushed by a couple of recent blockbusters (you know who you are), I feel like I should limit my excitement to a more reasonable level.  I'd also like my readers to keep in mind that I'm seeing this in IMAX 3D in good ol' 24 frames per second, NOT the 48 FPS crap.

What are my basic expectations?: Well, to be entertained.  As long as the film is not boring or constantly taking me out of the hypnotic atmosphere of Middle Earth, I will be fine.  I'm not expecting this to be on-par with The Lord of the Rings trilogy (it'd be nice, but somewhat unlikely), but I am expecting this to be a welcome return to Middle Earth.  Not mindblowing, but something that takes me back to how I felt when I first saw Fellowship of the Ring: eyes wide open, a huge smile on my face, and trying my very best to comprehend the enormous scale and mythology of the world that was being presented to me.

Best case scenario: Obviously the best case scenario is me walking out calling it the best film ever made, but that's not going to happen, so I'll describe the next best thing.  The best case scenario is me walking out saying that it is easily on-par with the previous trilogy and even surpasses some of the entries in that.

What are the chances of this happening?: 5%

I can almost guarantee you this will not happen.  Why?  Simple, because The Hobbit does not have the first-time magic, sense of urgency, and immediate danger that the LotR trilogy does.  That is not saying that The Hobbit will not have distinct qualities of its own, but comparisons to the original trilogy (especially Fellowship of the Ring) are almost impossible avoid.  Long opening exposition establishing the quest?  Check.  The Shire?  Check.  Naive Hobbit sent on a dangerous quest at the insistence of Gandalf?  Check.  Obstacles along the way?  Check.  A stop at Rivendell?  Check.  Descending into an underground city occupied by goblins?  Check.  I could say more similarities, but I'll digress.  As bitter and nit-picky as this sounds, it isn't necessarily a bad thing.  The recent clips are incredible, especially the escape from the underground goblin fortress, and inviting story comparisons (not in a negative way) to one of the greatest fantasy films of all time?  That's a helluva better than most of the other crap coming these days.  But I doubt it will be enough to shake off the sense of déjà vu.

Worst case scenario: It sucking really hard.  It's a colossal disappointment, the tone is never right, the effects are bad, and the humor is terrible.

What are the chances of this happening?: 2%

First of all, I can say for a fact that the effects are not bad.  Quite the contrary, they are undeniably gorgeous.  With a few minor exceptions, the visual design looks flawless.  The biggest factor in this situation happening is the story, and something I'm analytically sensitive about any time I watch a movie.  I can notice right away what does and doesn't work in a story, and I especially notice poor pacing.  If something story-related doesn't feel right, it will hinder my enjoyment of other elements.  You can have the most beautiful, staggering effects in the world, and it means nothing to me if it has poor storytelling and I'm not emotionally attached to it (see the Transformers movies and Avatar, for examples).  Another potential problem is that The Hobbit has less pages than any of the LotR books (and that includes the appendices), and Jackson is trying to tell a three-part story out of this one book, with each of the films presumably being at least 2 and a half hours.  This could be a huge problem, because in order to make this work, Jackson is going to have to do a lot of padding, and greatly expanding and adding things that were never meant to be there.  It has the potential to go wildly wrong.  That is a big reason why these adaptations of classic children picture books very rarely work, because they are trying to get at least an hour and 20 minutes out of a story that was never meant to last beyond 20-25 minutes.  The filmmakers add tons of crap, and the film ends up going wildly off the rails, and you walk out thinking "what the hell was that?" (this year's The Lorax movie is a good example of this).  In the case of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, I can see two hours worth of material (maybe 2 hours and 20 minutes, if I want to stretch it).  And this is only the set-up.  This film doesn't even include Smaug, the Battle of Five Armies, the stuff with the Wood-elves, etc.  It's going to take a great editor and a great screenplay to make this near three-hour set-up feel natural and not sluggish.  But, I do have confidence that this can work.  Even with the ridiculously bloated run-times, Jackson is a great storyteller.  He understands the importance of flow, pacing, and character development, and he's a force to be reckoned with, even when he's not at his best.

The most likely situation: I walk out thinking that it's a great film (maybe even an amazing one), and I'll be excited to see what Jackson has in store for The Desolation of Smaug.  Though, I doubt I will consider it to be on-par with the LotR trilogy.  I'll have some problems with it, but I'll think it was a very enjoyable experience.  The IMAX 3D is sure to make it feel more epic.  Even if I don't flat-out adore it the first time, repeat viewings might make my opinion of it much better.

Anyway, I'll be seeing The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey on Saturday, December 15th, so check back for a review of it.